ENERGY INTELLIGENCE / CALIFORNIA
HISTORICAL REPLAY
CAISO / NP15 DAY-AHEAD MARKET

The grid, in perspective.

Observed markets. Measured forecasts. Explicit uncertainty.

Loading verified experiment outputs…
LAST OBSERVED DEMAND
— MW

Awaiting data UTC

NP15 DAY-AHEAD PRICE
— $/MWh

Total locational marginal price · DAM

HELD-OUT MAE
— MW

— · selected on validation

90% INTERVAL COVERAGE
— %

Empirical coverage · not a guarantee

Demand & market outlook

24h direct forecast · final available week · MW

HELD-OUT / 2025 H2
SOURCE: CAISO OASIS Prediction bands: pre-fold split conformal · availability delays enforced

A measured research system

Expanding-window experiments compare calendar baselines, regularized models, boosted trees and a small recurrent network. Every chart reads from actual observations or stored predictions.

Know the boundary

Demand covers CAISO, not all California. Price is one day-ahead trading hub, not real-time settlement. Historical revisions and assumed publication delays limit operational claims.

Read the research report